The Los Angeles Dodgers and “Too Much Pitching”

Sometimes a cliche is just that - a simple saying that has become so overused that it no longer has any meaning outside of being a one-liner. No cliche in baseball gets more use than “you can never have too much pitching.” It seems like the phrase is used during every game, whether the man on the mound is performing well, reinforcing the wisdom of choice, or struggling, showing the lack of planning because there is no replacement. Scott Boras probably dedicates an entire chapter to the importance (and fragile nature) of pitching depth for each starter he represents.

A desire to have enough pitching is why the Yankees acquired Esteban Loaiza in 2004 and traded Jesus Montero to get Michael Pineda in 2012. It’s why the Red Sox signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz in 2009. It’s why the A’s took a chance at resurrecting the career of Bartolo Colon and why Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Pedro Martinez have been able to make mid-season comebacks in the twilight of their careers.

The Dodgers entered 2013 with one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball. Since Opening day, however, that depth has been tested and depleted. Aaron Harang was traded to the Seattle Mariners, Zack Greinke was injured in a brawl with Carlos Quentin, Chad Billingsly succumed to Tommy John surgery, Chris Capuano hurt his leg while running from the bullpen during the aforementioned Greinke-Quentin melee and then aggravated the injury during his turn in rotation, Stephen Fife was called up from AAA and lasted just 4.2 innings before going on the DL himself. It’s a good thing the Dodgers started with so many options to fill the innings. Ted Lilly, who had been rehabbing in the minors to begin the year, no opening in sight, now finds himself with a grasp on a starting job.

Dodgers management is committed to winning and willing to spend, which is why GM Ned Colletti signed left-handed pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu out of Korea during the offseason. At the time the move seemed to indicate the Dodgers were going to part with one or two members of their pantheon of starting pitchers, but the team stood still. Ryu was just 25 at the time, celebrating his 26th birthday on April 2nd, so youth and inexperience with American baseball was on their side had the team eased the southpaw into MLB rather than handing him a rotation spot out of Spring Training. Yet the youngster impressed and in the process, pushed veterans Capuano and Harang, both surprisingly useful in 2012, to the sidelines. But that still left too many players and too few seats at the table. How could the Dodgers successfully take advantage of eight or nine capable starting pitchers?

As the other common baseball saying goes “these things have a way of working themselves out.” Injuries, poor performance, trades - any one of these can shake up a situation that looks to be set in stone. Aaron Harang was traded because there appeared to be enough depth to compensate for his loss. Chad Billingsley entered 2013 as a member of the walking wounded, having opted to skip surgery last fall and rehab his balky elbow instead. Two down of more-or-less natural causes. But Greinke and Capuano both sustaining injuries in a brawl? Unpredictable. Fife injuring himself as a replacement? That kind of poor timing is hard to imagine. Had young pitchers Allen Webster and/or Rubby De La Rosa remained in the organization rather than shipping off to Boston in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett trade last summer, things wouldn’t have looked so bad. But again, at the time, they were additional excess pitching capacity.

Starting pitching is a commodity fungible enough to trade and valuable enough to hoard. There is a reason teams try to develop pitchers through the draft and international signings: it’s a resource that can suddenly run out, no matter what the reserve looks like before disaster strikes. It’s why the Cardinals under pitching coach Dave Duncan and the White Sox under his counterpart Don Cooper are renowned for their ability to take marginal pitchers and turn them into contributors. Being able to “fix” a guy who seems to have lost his stuff is something many teams will try every year, but only a few succeed. Kyle Lohse had logged over a thousand innings of 4.82 ERA ball in his career before joining the Cardinals in 2008. Since then his ERA is nearly a full point lower. And from the start of the 2011 season it stands at just 3.08. Lohse came to St. Louis as a reclamation project and left finishing 7th in NL Cy Young voting.

The Dodgers may not have a Kyle Lohse or a wizard masquerading as a pitching coach, but they are the latest team to learn that no matter how many pitchers they start with, it may still not be quite enough.

Cross-posted at The Sports Post

Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum: Cy Young Fifth Starters

When the Atlanta Braves were racking up first-place finishes in the National League East they relied on a trio of starting pitchers: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. When the Moneyball A’s were in their prime, they followed a similar strategy building a team around a core of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. The San Francisco Giants the past few years? Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Madison Bumgarner. And of at the back of the rotation, Barry Zito. After the 2011 season Lincecum was one year removed from back-to-back Cy Young awards and Zito had pitched 821.2 innings of 4.55 ERA baseball since joining the Giants five years earlier. It was clear who was the ace and who belonged at the back of the rotation. But is it still?

The Vet

Barry Zito signed a seven-year $126 million deal with the Giants after a 2006 season that was arguably the worst of his career. The lefty, known for his sweeping curveball, put up his third highest ERA, highest WHIP, second highest home run rate, second highest walk rate, and the second lowest strikeout rate of his career. What he did do was stay on the mound, starting an  AL-leading 34 games and tossing 221 innings. Barry Zito, one of the A’s big three, had become an innings eater.

It wasn’t always that way. A first-round pick by the Oakland Athletics in 1999 (ninth overall) Zito began his Major League career with in 2000 finishing tied for sixth in AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Kazuhiro Sasaki, Terrence Long, Mark Quinn, Bengie Molina, and Kelly Wunsch while tying Steve Cox, Adam Kennedy, and Mark Redman, each of whom received just one vote. As a fun aside, Lance Berkman also received a single vote for the NL Rookie of the Year that same season, though voters at least picked Rafael Furcal to win. His career has been a bit more noteworthy than Sasaki’s. Zito went on to throw 214.1 innings in his sophomore season, the first of six straight years he would accomplish that feat. A modern horse, Zito started 35 games, again, a feat he would match three more times, including his 2003 campaign.

2003 was the year made for Barry Zito’s memorabilia collection. A shiny 2.75 ERA over just shy of 230 innings, the best WHIP and walk rates of his career, second highest K/9 (although still just 7.1) and a Cy Young award made it a year for his Wikipedia page. Zito would win Game 2 of the 2003 ALDS against the Boston Red Sox but lose the series-deciding Game 5. After 2003, Zito would begin a trend of rising ERAs, hits allowed, and walks, while also striking out fewer batters and giving up more long balls.

While a move to the National League, where pitchers hit (or, more often, simply stand at the plate with a bat in hand) has been known to rejuvenate aging American League starters who make the transition, the bleeding didn’t stop when he crossed the Bay. In his first five years in the Senior Circuit, Zito saw his ERA settle in the mid-fours, his walks average 4.1 per nine innings, and his strikeout rate fall to just 6.4 per nine. Barry Zito had become a hundred-million-dollar bust. No longer an ace, no longer a solid top-of-the-rotation pitcher. In five years he had failed to see a boost in the NL and was treading water while slowly sinking.

The Freak

With the tenth pick of the 2006 MLB June Amateur Draft the San Francisco Giants selected a slight right-handed pitcher with a funky delivery named Tim Lincecum. Lincecum had been drafted twice before, first in 2003 by the Cubs in the 48th round and then in 2005 with the Indians in the 42nd round, but stuck with the University of Washington and watched his stock and his ability to command a large signing bonus rise.

Lincecum started eight games after signing across A- and A+ levels in 2006 tossing 31.2 innings of 1.71 ERA with a mere 58 strikeouts or 16.5 Ks per nine innings. The next spring he would be rated #11 overall by Baseball America and would start five games for AAA Fresno, striking out 46 in 31 innings, before getting the call to the Majors. Lincecum would start 24 games for the Giants that year striking out 150 batters in his 146.1 innings. While his walk rate (4.0 BB/9) was a little high, the high strikeout rate offset the damage. And that was just the beginning.

Over the next two years Lincecum would put up seasons many players would like to have just once in their career: 452.1 innings, 526 strikeouts (10.5 K/9) against 152 walks (3.0 BB/9). He would toss six complete games, three of them shutouts, and have a combined ERA of just 2.55. He would win back-to-back Cy Young awards. The sky was the limit. The Freak was unstoppable.

In 2010 and 2011 Lincecum would take a small step back, edging a little closer to the level of the ordinary “ace” rather than the extraordinary. His ERA crossed the barrier of three to 3.08, he averaged 9.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 with 451 strikeouts and 162 walks in 429.1 innings across sixty-six starts. Lincecum also chipped in during the 2010 World Series run with 37 excellent innings including a complete game shutout of the Atlanta Braves and an eight inning, one-run outing against the Texas Rangers.

However, some warning signs were there: over his first four full seasons Lincecum’s strikeout rate fell each year and his walk rate rose in each of the last two years after falling from 2008 to 2009.

2012: Turnabout Is Fair Play

Even given the decline in performance in 2011, Tim Lincecum was still a valuable pitcher heading into the 2012 season. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were there at the top of the rotation as well and Zito was still around for the back end. Ryan Vogelsong had been contributing admirably since his return to American baseball. And then the season began.

Lincecum had a very un-Lincecum debut allowing five runs in 5.1 innings while Zito tossed a complete-game shutout in hitter-friendly Coors Field. By the end of May Zito’s ERA stood at 3.41 while Lincecum’s was 5.82. The Freak had four starts where he allowed at least five runs in just two months after having just five such starts in each of the previous two years. After back-to-back 3.1 inning starts to begin July, things began to turn around after the All-Star Break. The former Cy Young winner allowed more than four runs just twice and put up a 3.83 ERA over his final fifteen regular season starts. The strikeouts weren’t quite there, just 86 over his final 89.1 innings,  and twelve home runs in just under 90 innings isn’t great, but there was hope that he was figuring out his issues and fixing his problems. For most of the postseason Lincecum came out of the bullpen and allowed just one run in eleven innings of relief. His lone start was a 4.2 inning, four-run outing against the Cardinals in the NLCS and Lincecum returned to the bullpen for the World Series putting up an 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 4.2 innings as the Giants defeated the Detroit Tigers.

Zito’s final fifteen starts would see him return largely to the Barry Zito that had been in San Francisco for several years: 85.2 innings of 4.31 ERA. But Zito limited the damage. By allowing more than four runs just once, and getting some help from his offence and bullpen, Zito would win eight of his second-half starts and the Giants would win twelve as they marched towards their second World Series in three years. Under the bright lights of the NLDS stage Zito wilted, lasting just 2.2 innings but he rebounded for the next two rounds tossing 13.1 innings of one-run ball across two starts. In un-Zito-like fashion he struck out 9 while walking just two. After not even making the roster for the Giants previous World Series run, Zito was redeemed in San Francisco.

2013 and Beyond

Whatever magic Zito uses to start the season seems to have continued into 2013 as the crafty left-hander began the new year with two scoreless seven-inning outings before the Milwaukee Brewers roughed him up for nine runs in just 2.2. Of course, he followed that up with another seven scoreless against the San Diego Padres.

Zito is in his last year of his deal with the Giants but the club retains an $18 million option for his services in 2014. Should they decline, Zito is due a $7 million buyout, so the Giants are really looking at a one-year, $11 million deal for a fourth or fifth starter who essential is what he is: dependably average.

2012 raised more questions about Lincecum than it answered. It showed a pitcher who was no longer at the top of his game as a starter but who could still dominate in relief. It showed a guy who had a bad first half and a decent second half. 2013 begins along the same lines: four starts into the season Lincecum has two good outings and two bad. He has two games with at least seven strikeouts and one with seven walks. Lincecum signed a 2 year $40.5 million contract after the 2011 season when the two sides were unable to reach a long-term deal. The Giants are probably breathing a sigh of relief on that one.

Which pitcher will perform better in 2013: the low-risk low(er) reward Zito or the high-risk, high reward Lincecum? Who will have a spot on the 2014 team? The answer to both questions may be Barry Zito, who, celebrating the ten-year anniversary of his Cy Young season has become a pitcher who can never live up to his contract but can be counted upon to reach a baseline of performance.

Cross-posted at The Sports Post

Alfredo Aceves Needs A New Home

As the Red Sox disastrous 2011 season came to an end, Alfredo Aceves was one of the notable successes, besides of course the MVP-caliber performance turned in by Jacoby Ellsbury. Aceves made four starts and fifty-one appearances out of the bullpen with a combined 2.61 ERA in both roles. While his starts were nothing special (14 runs in 21 innings although 8 of those came in one start) his body of work for the season was beyond what the Red Sox could have hoped for. At the time, much was being made about the club “stealing” Aceves away from the Yankees who had released the swingman due to injury concerns before the season started.

By the end of 2012 the goodwill was gone. A 5.36 ERA 8 blown saves and fighting with the manager - even embattled Bobby Valentine - will do that. Aceves rushed to join a brawl in the WBC and then began 2013 with an ERA approaching 9. Aveces was optioned to AAA Pawtucket, but he may not be long for the Red Sox organization. If the Red Sox finally cut ties with the troubled right-hander, through trade or release, where might he find work?

Los Angeles

The Dodgers entered 2013 with one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball. Since Opening day however, that depth has been depleted. Aaron Harang was traded to the Seattle Mariners, Zack Greinke was injured in a brawl with Carlos Quentin, Chad Billingsly succumed to Tommy John surgery, Chris Capuano hurt his leg while running from the bullpen during the Greinke-Quentin melee and then aggravated the injury during his start, Stephen Fife was called up from AAA and lasted just 4.2 innings before going on the DL himself. It’s a good thing the Dodgers started with so much depth. Management is committed to winning, willing to spend (though Aceves is relatively inexpensive at about $2 million this season) and has a good working relationship with the Red Sox. Don’t expect another Allen Webster in return, but a transfer to warmer climates might help all parties.

Houston Has a Pitching Problem

No team entered the season with lower expectations than the Houston Astros. Through Sunday, Astros pitchers - starters and relievers - have combined for a 5.51 ERA. Aceves could help out of the ‘pen, spot start if needed, and generally be out of the spotlight.

Canada

The Blue Jays have not gotten off to the type of start that many expected. A rebuilt starting rotation has Mark Buehrle (6.35 ERA), Josh Johnson (6.86), and R.A. Dickey (4.50 ERA) joining Brandon Morrow (5.27 ERA) and not retiring as many batters as expected. J.A. Happ (3.86 ERA), brought in to compete for the fifth starter spot has been the only bright spot.

It’s only the end of April, but almost every team can use extra pitching depth. With his history of starting and relieving, Alfredo Aceves has the skills to contribute to many organizations. Including the Red Sox, if he can put himself back together.

Get Ready for the Baseball Season With These Apps

Baseball is back! The first game, a Texas showdown where the Rangers welcomed the Astros to the American League was on Sunday. All thirty teams will have 162 games between now and October and no fans enjoy staying connected more than baseball fans. And the best way to keep on top of your favorite team, fantasy team, stats, and players are the apps.

At Bat 2013

At Bat can be the beginning and the end of a baseball app list because it fills your life with baseball. At Bat is a scoreboard, team tracker, radio, and television. Depending on the subscription pack you sign up for, ranging from free to $129, At Bat will provide scores, radio broadcasts, television streams or all of the above. What makes At Bat special is that it lives beyond your phone: just log in on your PC and stream audio or video. You can set it up on your Apple TV, Xbox 360, or PS3. Getting a new BlackBerry phone at work? It’s even on BlackBerry and the Kindle Fire. If you have an Android phone, you can put a scoreboard widget right on your homescreen. Keep baseball in your pocket.

MLB.com At Bat

At the Ballpark

A companion to At Bat, At the Ballpark handles your experience going to a game. A free app, At the Ballpark lets you check in to the game, track the games you’ve attended over the last few years (though only as far back as 2005), and puts a map of the park in your hand. This may not sound that exciting, but Major League Baseball doesn’t think small. The eventual killer features of this app are food and beverage ordering and ticket upgrades. Both are currently in a select number of test markets: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia), Minute Maid Park (Houston), Chase Field (Phoenix), CitiField (New York) and Marlins Park (Miami) for food and beverage ordering and Turner Field (Atlanta), Target Field (Minneapolis) and O.co Coliseum (Oakland) for seat upgrades.

If the only thing that sounds interesting to you here is the ability to change your seat when you find yourself behind a pole or spot a prime seat that no one is using, keep Pogoseat in mind. Right now Pogoseat is only in a couple locations on the west coast, but competition might force MLB to roll out their solution sooner.

MLB At the Ballpark is available for Android and iOS devices.

Fantasy Sports

Yahoo! and ESPN are both back with new editions of their fantasy baseball apps, depending on which service you use for your fantasy league. While neither app is a breakaway success, both get the job done. You can set your roster, search for new players, and keep your team up to date. Neither is as full-featured as the full desktop application, which for Yahoo is not designed for touch and is not as nice an experience on a tablet as it could be, but both get the job done.

Both apps are available for iOS (Yahoo)(ESPN) and Android (Yahoo) (ESPN)

Score Keeping

Maybe you are the guy or gal who goes to a game and buys the program every time just to get the scorecard. There’s something about filling in each box along with the pros and making a more personal record of the events of the game. But face it, you’re living in the past. Don’t worry though, because technology is here to bail you out: iScore is the classic scorecard formatted to fit your favorite gadget. You can keep score, track pitches, chart hit locations, and more. And the best part is you can use it for any baseball or softball game - major league, minor league, little league, you name it.

iScore is available for iOS and Android.

Twitter for Sports

One of the biggest changes in how data is consumed these days is the idea of the stream versus the inbox. Email is an inbox, it shows what you have read and what you still need to read. Twitter is a stream. Twitter doesn’t care if you read everything from everyone you follow, just that information flows past and you are free to dip in and out of the steam as you choose. Whenever you want to consume some content, just fire up an app and dive in. The final apps in today’s look are bringing this model to sports.

Fanboat is designed to be like Pandora for sports. (Full disclosure, I helped create Fanboat) When the app is launched simply follow your favorite teams and Fanboat will begin to learn what teams and players you like. At the end of every game, Fanboat pulls in the box score and breaks down events in a game - home runs, three pointers, passing yards, you name it - and displays the more significant (ie. a home run instead of a single, a hat trick, multiple touchdown receptions) feats and lets the user explore the game from these jumping off points. Instead of waking up in the morning and reading the sports page or watching an hour of SportsCenter, anyone can get a personal digest of the sports most important to them.

Fanboat is available for iOS.

Fancred is a community for sports fans. When you follow someone on twitter you see comments they make, stories they share, links and pictures they post. The same is true on Fancred. Like twitter, you create an account, have followers and can follow people, but you filter your feed based on the teams you root for. If you like the Red Sox you can sort to show what Sox fans have been posting or what stories have been posted that are about the Red Sox. Unlike arguing with strangers on twitter or blogs about which team is good and which, well, “sucks” on Fancred you can converse with the fan community you’re a part of and if you don’t agree with someone you don’t need to follow their posts. As you post more and your posts are voted up, your Fancred score increases, showing that you are a passionate fan. What’s more, Fancred is a local company, based right here in Boston!

Fancred is available for iOS.

Cross-posted at Sports of Boston

What Does the Red Sox Roster Look Like Without David Ortiz?

After the events of last August and the winter the Red Sox roster has taken on a whole new look. With a bumper crop of prospects nearing the majors and Jacoby Ellsbury entering free agency at the end of the season the lineup could undergo a number of changes in 2014 as well. For now however, the biggest issue facing John Farrell when he fills out his lineup card is the absence of David Ortiz, still recovering from the achilles injury that cost him much of the second half last season.

Leading off: Jacoby Ellsbury, Center Field

John Farrell needs Ellsbury exactly where Terry Francona needed him, at the top of the lineup. It was in Francona’s final season that Ellsbury broke out for a monster .321/.376/.552 line with 32 home runs and 39 steals. The key with Ellsbury is, of course, will he stay healthy. The speedy center fielder’s MVP caliber season as sandwiched by two injury-plagued campaigns that saw Ellsbury play a total of 92 games between them.

In the two hole: Dustin Pedroia, Second Base

Pedroia turned in his worst season with the Red Sox last year while hitting “just” .290/.347/.449 and showing the Red Sox how tremendously valuable and consistent he has been in the past. However, Pedroia battled injuries early in the season and from July 1 on hit .319/.372/.511. Healthy and hitting in Spring Training, Pedroia is ready to help bring the Red Sox back to respectability.

Batting third: Mike Napoli, First Base/DH

Napoli looked like a great bounce-back candidate when the Red Sox were first rumored to have signed him to a three-year, $39 million deal but injury scares eventually reduced that contract to just one year with a base of $5 million and a maximum of $13 million. The former Angel and Ranger followed up his .320/.414/.631 2011 campaign with a .227/.343/.469 season last year. Hopefully with his immediate health issues taken care of, Napoli can settle in at first (or DH while Big Papi is sidelined) and put up the type of performance everyone expected in 2012.

Cleanup: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Catcher

After the first three spots in the lineup the Red Sox have a lot of options, but Salty has seen some time in the cleanup spot during Spring Training and may get the nod during the regular season as well. The catcher has put up an on-base percentage of .288 in each of the last two years but has also clubbed 41 home runs over the same time frame. He’d be the power guy holding down the fourth spot in the lineup.

Batting Fifth: Will Middlebrooks, Third Base

It’s hard to remember that Middlebrooks hasn’t even spent a full season with the Red Sox yet. The power-hitting third baseman missed the end of the season with a wrist injury but in 75 games put up a .288/.325/.509 line while hitting 15 home runs. He could make a fine cleanup hitter too and maybe while waiting for Ortiz, he’ll get that chance.

Batting Sixth: Shane Victorino, Right Field

Victorino has been with Team USA the last week or so and like many players in this lineup is looking to return to something closer to his 2011 (.279/.355/.491) than his 2012 (.255/.321/.383). While his .491 slugging in ‘11 topped his previous high by .044 and is unlikely to return, the Sox new right fielder has a career .341 OBP. Depending on how much power and patience the Hawaiian is showing, Farrell can either put him towards the top of the lineup or somewhere in the middle. With at least 34 steals in four of the last six seasons, including 39 last year, his speed can be utilized well even slotted further down as a type of “second leadoff man” for the bottom of the lineup.

Batting Seventh: Stephen Drew, Shortstop or Jonny Gomes/Daniel Nava, Left Field

Unfortunately Stephen Drew is still recovering from a concussion suffered last week and has yet to be cleared by Major League Baseball to return to action. However, given the players who should occupy spots one through six, the soonest Drew could bat would be seventh. In his last full season, 2010, Drew hit .278/.352/.458 with 15 home runs and chipped in 10 steals. Coming back from injuries, the speed probably isn’t there but given that he still hit 7 home runs in 79 games last season, Drew could be a nice source of power in the bottom third of the lineup.

Batting Eighth: Jonny Gomes/Daniel Nava, Left Field or Lyle Overbay, First Base

The left field platoon of Gomes and Nava will probably fall in the seventh or eighth spot of the lineup. Both players have their flaws and strengths and simply having major league bats in eight lineup spots shouldn’t be understated. Depending on Ortiz, Nava’s experimentation with first base, and Lyle Overbay, it’s possible that Gomes and Nava are both in the lineup at times, and could be flipped based on Farrell’s tactical thoughts.

Batting Ninth: Jose Iglesias, Shortstop or Lyle Overbay, First Base

If Drew isn’t ready to go at short, Iglesias will likely begin the season in the majors and would be the most obvious candidate to hit ninth. With the roster not fully formed yet, this is actually the trickiest spot to fill during the Ortiz absence, which says a lot. The team has come a long way since the end of 2012 and even the remains of Lyle Overbay, coming off a .259/.331/.397 2012 is still not terrible to hid at the bottom of the roster.

The biggest lesson here: the Red Sox are the most underrated they have been in a decade. While a few players need to show that 2012 isn’t their new level of performance, some simply by avoiding injury in 2013, there is a lot of potential talent here. Even without David Ortiz this is not the lineup that limped through August and September. With a bit of luck, this lineup should more than hold its own, putting the pressure on the rotation.

Cross posted to Sports of Boston

The Hall of Unexpectedly Few

Yesterday marked the first time since 1996 that the BBWAA (Baseball Writers' Association of America) failed to elect at least one player to the Hall of Fame. For a year that was anticipated to be challenging due to the sheer number of qualified candidates -  with or without PED users - an empty slate is nothing short of disappointing.

 

Craig Biggio came the closest to election with 388 votes but fell 39 short of the threshold.

One positive take away: Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, longtime Houston Astros teammates, will once again have a chance to be elected together. Other people have made arguments on both sides about what the voters should do so I won't say any more than this. At the end of the day the Hall of Fame is just a museum and there should be room in that museum for players who tell the story of the game.

Bullpen Phones Go Wireless. What?

Baseball is a sport steeped in tradition. It moves slowly, it changes slowly, the game is played...slowly. So it comes as a big shock to me to imagine managers picking up a cell phone to call the bullpen.

But there you go. And this magical new communication will be powered by T-Mobile.

I guess the old fashioned bullpen phone will be the story I tell my kids. Like my dad told me about the bullpen cart.

While I normally am usually somewhere between unfazed and mildly annoyed by new ads and sponsorships appearing in front of every part of the game, I like that this is a functional partnership. Even if a cell phone may not really be necessary bullpen technology.
“Under the agreement, T-Mobile will provide MLB with a new On-Field Communication System, powered by T-Mobile’s powerful nationwide network technology. The first use of this technology will be in a wireless voice system connecting managers in select Major League dugouts to coaches in bullpens. This dugout-to-bullpen system will start to roll out in 2013 and the new On-Field Communication System solution will offer greater mobility as well as options for future innovation within the game.”
— http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130108&content_id=40895452&vkey=pr_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=TMO_TW_010813&partnerId=aw-5954574031703122309-996

It's a strange switch on the face of it, and I would prefer MLB address technology like "instant replay" or "iPads for managers in the dugout" before upgrading (downgrading?) the bullpen phone, but MLB (through MLBLAM) has been on the forefront of tech for a while so I'm watching with...medium interest.

Chone and Tell

Google Now is an excellent tool, but sometimes a tricky word or name just won't be interpreted correctly. For example, the search engine couldn't understand a voice of "When is Trot Nixon's birthday?" Nixon, of course, has an unusual family name, Trotman, truncated into a nickname, Trot, so it's somewhat understandable that Google hasn't mastered his name quite yet. His full name, Christopher Trotman Nixon, failed too as Google insisted on changing his name to Truckman.

But what about someone with a common name that wasn't spelled anything like it sounds? Well, saying Chone Figgins results in "Sean Fagan" and "Shawn Higgins" but not the baseball player. Speak more clearly? Didn't help. Pronouncing his name like it's spelled (Shown) well that's a horse of a different color!

Until he retires, and for a few years afterwards, Figgins can pronounce Chone as Shawn, but sooner or later, baseball historians will only know him as Shown. (to be fair his full name is Desmond DeChone "Chone" Figgins)

A Funny Thing Happened to the Rated Rookies

Growing up I collected baseball cards. I heard stories about rare cards, players my dad had that became his favorites, putting cards in the spokes of a bike (which did not translate at all to my generation), and the delight that could be had when looking through your collection as an adult as realizing how many future stars were first admired by you as a child. An entire episode of Full House revolved around a Nolan Ryan rookie card that was discovered, sold for pennies, and resulted in family drama. I imagined that, looking back on my collection, I too would have fabulous memories and make great discoveries. For the most part that was a disappointment.

Many of the players I had never heard of as a kid, say, Cris Colon and Todd Steverson, had careers measured in games rather than seasons. Which is fine enough, baseball is a difficult sport. But I wanted to find a guy about whom I could say “I watched his whole career!” Kirt Manwaring had a relatively uninspiring career as a backstop in the National League, but he at least played for thirteen years. If I had gotten into fantasy baseball earlier in life, I bet I would have known who he was. Calvin Reese is best known for sharing his nickname with Gumby’s horse friend. But I felt like there had to be one star. One guy somewhere in that carefully packaged collection of rookies who would emerge from the time capsule triumphantly.

I didn’t have much trouble paging through my binder to see which former Major Leaguers had done all right for themselves. Tony LaRussa was still managing the A’s back then and in all three of his card portraits he was not wearing glasses. That was a start. Bill Pecota went on to be the namesake for the Baseball Prospectus player forecasting system. Royce Clayton played Miguel Tejada in the Moneyball movie.

Future managers were represented as well with Bob Melvin, Terry Francona, John Farrell, Kirk Gibson, and Ozzie Guillen leading the way. Heck, I even had a Maddox (Mike, who, as quoted on the back of his 1992 Topps was “look[ing] forward to returning to the Murph”). But alas, no star rookie just yet as I returned from the binder to the small box of minor leaguers and prospects.

Until, nearly three-quarters of the way through the small cardboard box, came Edgar Martinez. The third baseman was described as “a disciplined hitter to all fields who drives the ball into the alleys...a solid third base candidate for the Mariners in 1989.” He sure was. Martinez of course would go on to become the standard bearer for the designated hitter, justifying the DH as a position for a baseball player rather than an afterthought of the rules difference between the two leagues. He finished his career as a seven-time participant in the All-Star Game and five-time MVP candidate. Over 145 games in 1995 his on base percentage stood at .479, the 17th highest total for anyone playing at least that many games - and thirteen of the top fifteen spots are held by Bonds, Ruth, or Williams.

Edgar Martinez...My childhood was saved.

Red Sox & Dan Haren

There’s no way to put it nicely: The Red Sox pitching needs help. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester both improved as the season went on and we saw a breakout year from Felix Doubront, but even with John Lackey penciled in as his 2010 self the rotation is still full of question marks. According to Nick Cafardo, the team is interested in Angels’ starter Dan Haren. It looks like Ben Cherington is actively trying to shore up a major weakness from the past season. Available on a one-year deal, potentially for a small price in trade, Haren may well be the best option for the Red Sox to acquire for 2013.

Why Would the Angels Trade This Guy?

From 2005 to 2011, as a full-time member of the starting rotations in Oakland, Arizona, and Anaheim, Dan Haren was durable and at times, dominant. The right-hander averaged 226 innings per season with nearly 200 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.12. While his 3.49 ERA over that time is not eye-popping, it was good enough to net 101 wins in his 237 starts. Haren is known for his control: in parts of ten big league seasons he has a K:BB of 4.01.

To put it another way, Haren has three balks and seventy-seven wild pitchers in the Majors. The Red Sox staff issued eleven balks and threw forty-two wild pitches this season. Obviously Franklin Morales is unlikely to have five balks called against him ever again, but the Red Sox starters had trouble getting out of their own way at times during the 2012 season.

For the Angels though, it comes down to money. Their spending spree on Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson last offseason is not going to be a yearly event. In addition, the team is still saddled with Vernon Wells.

Is It Good for the Red Sox?

The Red Sox are usually among the leaders in team payroll every season and 2013 is likely to be no different. Because the team freed up so much payroll when Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford were traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, one-year financial commitments that would normally be a burden of sorts even to a large market team become freebies. And why shouldn’t they? The Red Sox will not be lowering revenue expectations with a lower payroll. Taking on the full $15.5 million obligation for next year is merely spending money that the team can allocate as they choose on short-term deals while looking to the future for the impact pieces to sign long-term, like Will Middlebrooks or even Jacoby Ellsbury.

There is a caveat: Haren is coming off the worst season of his career. His ERA rose to 4.33, his WHIP and walk rate climbed, and he was plagued with back problems which limited him to 176 innings, the only time Haren failed to reach 200 innings while pitching a full season. But a potential number two starter for one season is tempting. If Haren isn’t healthy he’s only signed for one season.

If the Angels are not interested in keeping Haren around for next season, the cost in trade will be minimal, like the recently completed trade of Ervin Santana to the Kansas City Royals. The return in that case was minor league lefty Brandon Sisk. Sisk is 27 year old relief pitcher who may help out in the bullpen. If multiple teams are bidding on Haren, the cost may be higher in terms of prospects, but don’t expect any of the big names on the farm to head to LA.

----

So, the Angels didn't trade Haren to anyone. But if his medical records look good, the Sox will probably at least knock on his preverbal door.

The Red Sox Need A New Drew

Nothing has gone according to plan for the Boston Red Sox in 2012 while everything that could possibly help the Baltimore Orioles has gone so perfectly it’s hard to believe. That’s baseball. For a team like the Pirates, despair can run rampant. For the Washington Nationals (and the Rays before them) good drafts built the rotation, providing the pitchers - Zimmermann and Strasberg -   and the prospects to acquire Gio Gonzalez. But that wasn’t all: the Nationals had to buy some if their respectability by signing Jayson Werth to a seven-year $126-million dollar deal.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, “the Red Sox just got out of two contracts like that” and I agree. The freedom from the Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford signings should not be given up quickly, even for a team with enough money to afford “mistakes.” Rather, think back to the 2010 season and Adrian Beltre.

What’s the History?

For better or worse, Adrian Beltre will always be remembered for his amazing 2004 season: .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs is pretty hard to forget. However, Beltre, doing what any smart player who has a career year right before hitting free agency will do, parlayed his success into five years and $64 million dollars with the Seattle Mariners. (At the time, that was a lot of money. Trust me.)

Of course, Seattle would turn out not to be a good fit for Beltre and a series of down-years and injuries left him licking his wounds by the time his contract expired. The slick-fielding third baseman hit a combined .266/.317/.436 with a total of 103 home runs, never hitting more than 26 in a season. By contrast, in parts of seven seasons with the Dodgers, including his amazing 2004, Beltre hit a more respectable, but not superstar, .274/.332/.463 with 147 home runs. Essentially, without that magical 2004, Beltre wouldn’t have been a disappointment. At the time though, Beltre was coming off his age 25 season, and players that age can take big steps forward.

Beltre would turn 31 in April of 2010 after signing a one-year deal with the Red Sox that would pay him $9 million dollars that January. Against all (or most) odds, Beltre thrived. He lead the league with 49 doubles, boosted his slash line to .321/.365/.553 (all career highs outside of 2004) and launched 28 home runs, the most he hit since leaving Los Angeles.

E6

Shortstop has been a revolving door during the John Henry era. Whether trades, fill-ins, free agents, or prospects - no one has managed to hold and keep the job. This may not be a problem. Some positions, like second base with Dustin Pedroia, have been filled from the farm. Cody Ross, who may be extended, was signed as a free agent to take a share of the outfield corners.

With the Dodgers taking over a quarter billion dollars in future financial obligations off the Red Sox hands, Boston has money to spend - especially on short-term contracts, the kind Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington are famous for. The next one-year deal should be given to Stephen Drew, formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks and now on the Oakland A’s.

Stephen is the younger brother of former Red Sox right-fielder J.D. Drew and plays shortstop. Like his brother, Drew came up through the minors with potential for both power and speed. And sure enough, Drew showed he was capable of putting up double digits in steal and home runs, while chipping in quite well with doubles power too.

Drew's career has been a series of ups and downs.

Drew's career has been a series of ups and downs.

But, like his brother, only to a greater extreme, Drew’s career was derailed by injuries. After his banner 2010 season, Drew the Younger has battled one injury after the next. On July 20th, 2011, Drew broke his ankle while sliding into home plate. His season, not off to a great start, was over. Drew then had offseason surgery for a sports hernia. This brought about additional delays in his rehab and recovery. When Drew finally returned to the Diamondbacks on June 27th of this season, things didn’t go well.

Drew hit just .193/.290./311 in 40 games for Arizona. It seemed like things couldn’t go much worse for the shortstop. With a $10 million dollar mutual option for 2013 and a buyout of $1.35 million, the D-backs were faced with a conundrum: their former up-and-comer or remain on the hook for at least the buyout. The surprising Oakland A’s took them up on it and acquired the potential upgrade over Cliff Pennington from the Diamondbacks in August.

Since his Oakland A’s debut on August 21, Drew has hit .271/.340/.421 with 5 home runs and the A’s have almost secured a playoff spot.

Where the Sox Come In

The Red Sox are rebuilding. They’ve missed the playoffs three straight years. Jose Iglesias has yet to step up and claim the shortstop position. Why not take a shot on Drew? The Oakland A’s are not known for high-priced players and Drew’s $10 million, along with $8.5 for Yoenis Cespedes and $7 million for Coco Crisp, could be more than the team is willing to spend.

Mike Aviles has hit just .251/.283/.383 this season. While the Red Sox should have a strong offense again next season once Will Middlebrooks and David Ortiz are back in the fold, there is no reason not to look at upgrading. When you consider the amount of payroll flexibility the Sox have these days, snagging Drew on a bounce-back deal could be Beltre 2.0. The risk, of course, is that Drew’s bounceback has shown enough to warrant a long-term deal, which even three years may be too much of a risk, given his performance and injury history.

Cross-posted at Sports of Boston

Red Sox Acquire Danny Valencia

On Sunday the Twins made an unusual move: they traded their between-stars “third baseman of the future” Danny Valencia to the Red Sox for prospect Jeremias Pineda. Valencia, a once promising young player at the hot corner, has seen his stock fall. Actually, that’s being too kind: it’s plummeted. How did the third place finisher for AL Rookie of the Year in 2010 end up as Ben Cherington’s first scrapheap project?

History

Valencia was taken in the 19th round of the 2006 draft out of the University of Miami. The expectations of him as a prospect were modest, but as Valencia progressed through the Twins’ minor-league affiliates, he continued to succeed. After hitting a combined .285/.337.466 between Double and Triple A in 2009, Baseball Prospectus labelled him as “solid across the board” even though he had initially been viewed “as no more than an organizational player.” The hits just kept coming for Valencia and in 2010 he got his shot as the Major League job.

For one season, Valencia more than held his own. He would hit .311/.351/.448 for the Twins that year and pushed aside the more defensively focused Nick Punto on his way to a third place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Excellent hitting combined with solid defense allowed Valencia to hold down the starting job and enter 2011 as a bona fide Major Leaguer.

Wheels In Motion

Unfortunately the fairytale ends here. In 2011 Valencia would run into the ceiling that was predicted when he was drafted. His numbers would collapse to a much less impressive .246/.294/.383 for his sophomore season and would reach a floor of .198/.212/.310 in 2012 before he was returned to the minor leagues after his acquisition by the Red Sox. It all fell apart rather fast for the one-time underdog.

2010 Valencia was aided by a sky-high batting average on balls in play of .345 and while he put up at similar number (.355) in Triple A in 2010 before being promoted, his 2009 BABIP at that level was just .306, while at Double A the mark was .318. When the Major League number returned to something more in line with his career, combined with just 40 walks on the season, Valencia simply didn’t reach base enough. While he still hit 28 doubles and 15 home runs in 2011, by the time of his trade in 2012 his slugging (.310) was lower than his rookie batting average (.311).  Valencia’s hitting, while never amazing outside of 2010, was no longer enough to succeed in the Majors without those extra balls falling in for hits.

What’s Next?

He has yet to make his PawSox debut, but Valencia has probably joined the team by now. He won’t see much time with Boston now that the Will Middlebrooks era has begun, but if he can get his bat back on track, maybe take some grounders at first base, he could have a future on the bench. Or, you never, know, he could become a valuable trade chip for a team looking for a stopgap at third base who is still somewhat young and cheap.

(Cross-posted at Sports of Boston)

Red Sox Trade Deadline 2012: Blow It Up!

July 31st has been an important day several times in the history of the John Henry era Red Sox. Nomar Garciaparra was traded in 2004, leading of course to the magical World Series run. The following year, Jonathan Papelbon made his debut while Manny Ramirez failed to start, although he pinch hit after the deadline had come and gone, signaling that he had reached the first of many accords with the Red Sox. Manny would find himself the focus of the trading deadline in 2008 when he journeyed to the West Coast and Jason Bay took over left field duties. Victor Martinez would be the 2009 acquisition, signaling the beginning of the end for Jason Varitek, whose role would continue to diminish over the following two seasons.

The takeaway: the Red Sox have been buyers and sellers - at the same time - when the trade deadline rolls around, looking to make a deal that give each side something of value, not simply dumping salary or taking on a bad contract from another club. With the four o'clock deadline rushing towards us, Ben Charington’s club is at the bottom of the AL East, the back of the pack for the Wild Card spots. Fans are disappointed that the club has missed the playoffs the past two years, but they understand that 2012 is most likely a lost year. The Sox GM can take this time to make the Red Sox his team, not Theo Epstein’s, rebuild, and plan for 2013 without substantially hurting what are already long odds of a postseason berth two months from now.

The Keepers

Despite rumors about Carl Crawford and the Marlins last week, the troubled left fielder isn’t going anywhere. Ditto Adrian Gonzalez. [Man, the Dodgers blew that logic out of the water} Moving either player would require the Red Sox eating a lot of cash or taking on another big contract. Despite the frustrations each player has had during the past season and a half, both are likely better bets to perform well over their remaining tenure than most of the bad contracts out there. David Ortiz won’t be going anywhere either, although if he were not on the DL, he would be an interesting piece to move. Dustin Pedroia is probably as safe as any player.

The Parts

Should the Red Sox explore buying and selling in the remaining hours, Cody Ross and Mike Aviles are obvious names to move. Ross is having a great year while hitting .260/.331/.523 with 16 home runs, but as a free agent at the end of the year, and a crowded Red Sox outfield, his future with the team is limited. Ross might be able to bring back another piece, maybe a back end starter who is also approaching free agency and could shore up the rotation, or simply a prospect along the lines of Clayton Mortenson, who has lost some luster but might be able to right the ship.

Aviles has struggled since a fast start to the season; he’s hit just .241/.259/.354 since May 1st. While the shortstop has 11 home runs on the season, eight of those came in April and May. With Pedro Ciriaco, Nick Punto (also tradable), and Jose Iglesias, the Sox could probably get by with a more defense-oriented player since Aviles hasn’t been hitting well for a few months. Again, the return wouldn’t be great, but another team might have a need and could take a flyer on the former Royal. After all, in his transition to the Red Sox, Aviles thrived, maybe a change of scenery once in awhile is all he needs to get things working again.

The bullpen is full of extra pieces that could be desirable to other teams: Andrew Miller, Matt Albers, and Vicente Padilla could be replaced by the Sox with Mortenson, Andrew Bailey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka (or Aaron Cook).

Kelly Shoppach is another extra piece. The catcher is having a fine season in limited at bats, .261/.346/.504, but could be an upgrade for another team. If the front office considers Ryan Lavarneway capable of stepping in to handle backup catching duties, trading Shoppach could be a nice favor to the player (who doesn’t want to end up on a contender?), let the Sox get a long look at a guy on the farm, and not risk a large drop off is production.

These are minor moves that could let the Red Sox turn over a good portion of the roster, cut some payroll by promoting minor leaguers, and generally shake up the team. With the ground they need to make up, Matt Albers is not the answer. The problem has been and remains the starting rotation.

The Crazy Possibilities

Josh Beckett. Jon Lester. Jacoby Ellsbury. All three have become the subject of trade rumors, especially Beckett. While Gordon Edes is reporting that Beckett is not on the move, until 4 PM nothing is certain.

Reports have linked Beckett to the Rangers, Dodgers, and Braves, but so far nothing has come together. While there were rumors of a deal with the Rangers this afternoon, the idea died off quickly. Given the nearly $40 million remaining on Beckett’s contract, the Sox would likely have to eat a significant amount of salary to move their Texan this summer. Should Beckett finish strong, maybe a deal could be worked out in the winter. Because Beckett has 10/5 rights, he can’t be traded without his permission, although if he wants out as much as the fans would like to see him gone, getting that permission may not be an issue. Like the Manny Ramirez situation, the Red Sox may not have a trading partner for Beckett until the waning minutes of the three o’clock hour.

Lester faces a different problem than Beckett: he has been really bad this year. While his start against the Yankees on Saturday was encouraging, the guy who was so good from 2008 to 2011 hasn’t been taking the mound this year. The lefty is owed $11,625,000 in 2013 but his contract includes a $13 million team option for 2014. Should the Red Sox trade Lester, the receiving team would only be on the hook for $13 million plus the remainder of what he is owed this season, minus whatever cash Boston sends along. If Lester remounds, that 2014 option looks like a pretty good deal.

Unsurprisingly, Edes also reported that the Sox have no plans to trade Jacoby Ellsbury, although there have been calls from other teams about his availability. Ellsbury is probably the most valuable major leaguer the Red Sox have to trade. The center fielder is coming off an MVP-caliber season, has looked healthy since since return, and is under team control for 2013 before hitting free agency. Unlike Beckett and Lester there is no large contract hanging like an albatross around his trade value.

While he is the least likely of the potential trade candidates, Ellsbury would also fetch the most in return. In a dream scenario, the Sox could extract a package similar to what the Braves paid for Mark Teixeira: a couple of top prospects. Like Teixeira, the receiving team would have a full year of control beyond this season rather than a rental. With B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn - both center fielders - hitting free agency this fall, Ellsbury could be a very attractive trade chip this winter as well.

(cross-posted from Sports of Boston)

Did the Red Sox Miss Out on Roy Oswalt?

The past offseason didn’t just have an elephant in the room – it had an elephant the entire room was on top of stampeding down the streets of Boston like a pachyderm “rolling rally.” If this elephant had a first name, like the song goes, it would be P-I-T-C-H, and it’s second name would be I-N-G. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Lackey, you name it, pitching was a problem for Ben Cherington to solve during his early days as Red Sox General Manager. But how? Well, one potential solution was to sign Roy Oswalt.

Theo Epstein had a philosophy when it came to pitchers: the shorter the better. No one-year deal, unless outrageously expensive, could really come back to hurt a big market team like the Red Sox. It’s a sound strategy that any team could get behind. While John Smoltz and Brad Penny didn’t work out, the highest profile pitchers the Sox practiced this strategy with, teams often pick up a guy from the scrapheap and hope for the best. Just look at the Kevin Millwood and Bartolo Colon renaissances of the past few years. Yes, Millwood was let go by the Sox, but he wasn’t showing the same stuff in the minors that he would in the majors. No one could have seen this type of run coming from the veteran.

Back to Oswalt: rumors during the winter and spring were that he wanted to pitch close to home in Mississippi. When he eventually signed with the Texas Rangers, it made a lot of sense. Now, Oswalt has come out to defend his choice, and has said in no uncertain terms “I never got anything” from the Red Sox. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal discussed the recruitment process with the hurler and Oswalt said that while a number of teams expressed interest, the Dodgers, Phillies, and Red Sox never actually pulled the trigger to make formal, final offers to sign him.

Oswalt isn’t the young gun he was when the Astros were in the World Series – the righty has chronic back issues – and the Red Sox had Daisuke Matsuzaka and Aaron Cook waiting in the wings to help out a beleaguered rotation. Not making an offer, with the team already spending a considerable amount of money on pitchers (John Lackey) who wouldn’t even play this season, might not have been the best use of money. The bullpen at the time was a complete unknown, the outfield was in shambles, and Kevin Youkilis was a shadow of himself after missing the end of the 2011 season.

So what did the Red Sox miss out on? To start with, Oswalt has taken his lumps with the Rangers: in 29.1 innings he has a 5.22 ERA. However, things aren’t as bad as they look, at least results wise. Additionally, sandwiched by strong outings, Oswalt had back-to-back disastrous outings. On June 27th he gave up five runs in six innings to the potent Tigers lineup. Next time out: eleven runs (nine earned) in just four and two-thirds innings against the White Sox. His other three starts: 18.2 innings and just three runs allowed.

Oswalt still remembers how to strike people out too: 25 Ks in his 29.1 innings this year compared to just 6 walks.

At the end of the day, the Red Sox probably just didn’t think Oswalt could stay healthy. Sure enough, Oswalt was supposed to face the Sox during their series this week but was scratched because his back, as it has in recent years, acted up. Oswalt is on track to start Monday, but just a day ago that start was to be Sunday. And a few days before that, he was certain to start on Saturday. Given the Red Sox substantial disabled list obligations at the time Oswalt signed, the front office probably couldn’t justify adding a player who, no matter what the upside, wasn’t likely to remain healthy for even half a season.

(cross-posted at Sports of Boston)

The Marlins Become a Supervillain

This past winter the Marlins were the talk of the town. Rather than cutting salary and penny-pinching, the Fish were binging on "new stadium revenue" while signing Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, and Jose Reyes.

One disappointing half-season later, the team is selling once again. It started yesterday when the team shipped Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to the Detroit tigers for pitching prospect Justin Turner. 

Turner, forced into the Tigers rotation, had struggled in three starts this season, giving up 1 1 runs in 12.1 innings. In fourteen minor league starts this season, Turner threw 84.1 innings to a 3.16 ERA while striking out 57 and walking 31. Not dominating numbers, but in their 2012 annual, Baseball Prospectus said he could "become Rick Porcello with more punchouts. That's even better than it sounds." And he seems on track to do just that. Plus, facing the pitcher three times a game in the DH-less league never hurts either.

Of course, Sanchez is a pending free agent and with the reworked compensation picks for departing players, if a team doesn't plan on making a large offer, it might be better served to take a lesser package of prospects than the potential draft pick.

Josh Johnson, Heath Bell, and Hanley Ramirez are not free agents at the end of this season, yet all three are rumored to be on the block. Ken Rosenthal reports that all three, plus Randy Choate and recent acquisition Carlos Lee are being made available. Rosenthal reports that the team would "absolutely try and try hard" to trade Bell months after signing him is concerning on several levels.

Bob Nightengale says that the Hanley Ramirez sweepstakes incudes the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. 

Ramirez, of course, began his career as a Red Sox and was traded, along with Anibal Sanchez, for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Unfortunately for Ramirez, since his career year in 2008, where he won the NL batting title, his power and speed have declined to levels not approaching his superstar talent. Still just 28, he's the prefect "change of scenery" guy to acquire.

Oh yeah, the supervillain part, courtesty of Out of My Vulcan Mind: trade everything!

The Red Sox Shuffle : Kevin Youkilis, Will Middlebrooks, and Daniel Bard

When Terry Francona was manager, he usually pointed out that worrying about the bench and pinch hitters wasn’t a big concern for the Red Sox because the front office had built an everyday lineup. Players were responsible for one position, with a little background in another for the occasional “banged up” guy who avoided the disabled list by sitting out for six or seven days. He never imagined the type of injuries that would follow the Red Sox from Spring Training forward in 2012. Now that Alfredo Aceves has locked down the closer job, at least until Andrew Bailey returns,, the two players who are still, possibly, in flux as to their position going forward: Daniel Bard and Kevin Youkilis.

The Bard

One of the most surprising storylines of the past offseason was the plan to move Daniel Bard, heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon, from the closer line of succession and into the starting rotation. There were views taken on both sides: Bard was not particularly impressive as a starter after first signing with the Red Sox but was lights out as a reliever and Bard as a even a 3/4/5 starter would be more valuable over 200 innings per season than as a closer or setup guy pitching at most 80 innings each year. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe was ready to end the Bard experiment a few weeks ago. At the time, I wholeheartedly disagreed. Bard’s work in relief was brilliant: in 197 innings between 2009 and 2011 Bard struck out 213 batters, surrendered 76 walks of the unintentional variety, and gave up just 132 hits.

If even half of that stuff could follow him into the starting rotation the impact would have been huge. I hoped the Red Sox would stick with Bard as long as it took to find out if he could be a starter. While the Red Sox continued to send Bard out for the first inning, the wheels eventually fell off, and the car rolled all the way down a cliff into a ditch. On June 3rd against the Blue Jays, Bard lasted just 1.2 innings. While recording five outs Bard walked 6, hit 2, and allowed 5 runs. It took 55 pitches - nearly half as many as he normally threw over five or six inning outings, even those (most of them) where Bard wasn’t exactly sharp.

And so Daniel Bard was returned to the minors. The Red Sox were committed to the experiment. After all, Bard had just 55.0 MLB innings as a starter under his belt. On June 8th, Bard made his first minor league start. It could have gone better: 1.0 inning, 3 runs (but 2 Ks). After this outing, the Sox, still committed to Bard as a starter, decided to shake things up: he would continue to build back to a starter’s workload through relief outings. Returning Bard to the kind of outings he succeeded in the past seems to have worked. In his next five innings for the PawSox Bard gave up just 1 run and 2 walks while striking out 6.

At the moment, the Red Sox are still committed to bringing Bard back to the Majors as a starting pitcher, but nothing is written in stone. Daisuke Matsuzaka is back, Aaron Cook isn’t far behind, and the Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in Cubs’ starters Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. Should any of these have success - either on field or via acquisition - the Sox could easily return Bard to the bullpen and have a deep back-of-the-pen including Aceves, Bailey, Melancon, and Bard. If the Red Sox can win a few more games on the back of a starting rotation that keeps the team competitive, that is a playoff-caliber bullpen.

Whether or not Bard makes another start, getting him back on track is the key. Right now, it looks like the trip to the minors is just what the doctor ordered.

Stuck in the Middlebrooks with Youk

Will Middlebrooks has played well enough to warrant a starting job on a Major League team. A .289/.328/.484 line with 7 home runs and a quality glove at third base is nothing to sneeze at. Despite being the youngest, least experienced, player of the bunch, Middlebrooks has stayed at third base while Adrian Gonzalez has played right field, allowing Kevin Youkilis to man first. It’s not ideal, but everyone is getting at bats.

The problem is that Youkilis is mired in a slump: .215/.301/.314 on the season and .211/.309/.338 since returning from the disabled list. It doesn’t matter how many teams Ben Charrington talks to about the veteran third baseman, a slumping player coming off tough injuries is not an easy sell.

However, Ken Rosenthal, the expert on knowing where players are going, hears that the end is in fact near for Youkilis. An official with a National League team told Rosenthal that the Greek God of Walks is “being shopped everywhere.” Among the leaders are the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Pirates in the National League and the White Sox and Indians in the American League. The demand is there, the price is probably low, although that doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t get a decent player of some type in return if they pick up some salary, and the replacement is in-house. This is a combination of factors not often present when a trade is rumored or, in fact, imminent.

Where do they go from here?

Fourth place. At least. The Toronto Blue Jays have lost three starters in the past week - one has already undergone Tommy John surgery, ending his season. If Ellsbury, Crawford, and Bailey can contribute at anything close to their ability, Clay Buchholz avoids Logan Morrison, and Ryan Kalish is healthy, the Red Sox have the ability to field a dramatically better team in the second half. And that doesn’t include Adrian Gonzalez breaking out of his season-long slump. The bottom has likely already passed, even if it hasn’t been reflected in the win column.

Baseball on the Brain?

The six months of Major League Baseball's regular season are jam-packed with 162 games for each of the 30 teams. All winter I wait for baseball season to begin again. Sometimes I wonder if it pervades my mind too much?

This is sadly not a crochet creation of MVP candidate Josh Hamilton.